Shang, Li; Lyu, Zheng; Sun, Nannan; Shen, Guofei; Shen, Qun; Guo, Ru; Wei, Wei

JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION

2025, ,

Shang, Li; Lyu, Zheng; Sun, Nannan; Shen, Guofei; Shen, Qun; Guo, Ru; Wei, Wei

The technology pathway is a pivotal strategy for facilitating carbon-neutral actions. The oil products industry is the primary executor of livelihood needs and the priority for emission reductions, and how the industry can achieve a secure, carbon-neutral transition still needs in-depth research. Taking into account both the demand and supply sides of oil products, our study develops an integrated model to effectively configure industrial technology with minimal economic cost and high feasibility. We evaluate the impacts of different technology portfolios on system cost, supply security, and carbon emission. Innovatively, a composite import dependency (CID) indicator is proposed to describe the performance of supply security, and scenarios have been designed by an enhancing constraints strategy based on the progressive relationship between supply security and carbon reduction in the modern era. The results indicate that 1) Deploying new domestic production is crucial for supply security in the future. 2) If petrochemicals dominate future production, system cost will increase by 18.58 %, and the system cost will decrease by 6.24 %-21.86 % if coal chemicals dominate. CO2 emissions rise sharply for both types, up to 0.6-3.3 Gt in 2030 and 0.2-1.5 Gt in 2060.3) Adopting CCUS is crucial for carbon neutrality, the cost-competitive analysis across all abatement scenarios reveals that maintaining refinery operations while investing in coal-to-liquid technology coupled with CCS is generally superior in China.