摘要
The widespread use of polymers leads to several environmental challenges, particularly greenhouse gas emissions and ecosystem contamination. Yet, the global mitigation potential of possible interventions has not yet been quantified. This requires a high-resolution model to anticipate the future demand for polymers, and the potential impacts of demand reduction and recycling. Here, we present such a model to estimate the production, trade, consumption, and the accumulation in service of 14 polymers across eight world regions. The results show that current trends could lead to doubling the annual global demand and waste generation of polymers by 2100. But increased demand could be avoided by either limiting the stock of polymers in service globally or by maximising the deployment of mechanical and chemical recycling technologies. A reduction in demand for polymers from current levels seems challenging, which may present additional obstacles to the decarbonization of this sector.
